37) The “US/Japan Reversal” Prediction came true
The article contributed by Shimura in the June 1980 issue of “Chuo Koron”
(Central Review),
titled “Special Report: Japan-US Semiconductor War” (Click to Enlarge)
With the decline of power in the United States, and Japan’s enthusiastic efforts
in the semiconductor field, I contributed an article titled "Special
Report - Japan-US Semiconductor War" in the June 1980 issue of "Chuo
Koron (top-ranked general opinion magazine in Japan)". It was about 80
pages of 400 letter-sized papers, which became a 24-page article in the magazine
with the first chapter title, "A Hypothesis: The Day When Silicon Valley
Collapses".
I felt a sense of crisis in the future of the US semiconductor industry seeing
that large companies such as Fairchild and Mostek were being sold to French
capital and conglomerate companies, while the concept of “Business Games”
became stronger. Another thing was that product disparities between Japan
and the United States, including differences in quality issues, became more
apparent.
While observing this, I wrote "The valley (which once in the past was
in a “gold rush”) is trying to regain stability and peace again, but that
“peace” is like the silence of "Silent Spring" once drawn by Ms.
Rachel Carson.” (The silence means a bleak future for the valley)
The US share of semiconductors on the shipment basis at that time was still
over 50%, while Japan was under 40%. But because my view was somewhat radical,
I got a lot of interviews from US newspapers and magazines. But as we approached
the end of the 1980s, my prediction was proved.
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